Will China really invade? Caution and optimism in Taiwan

Taiwan's presidential election on Jan. 13 is just weeks away and military pressure on the island by mainland China is on the rise. Yet, conversations with residents on the self-governed island suggest that a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is not a large concern.
In mid-November, Taiwan's Defense Ministry allowed Nikkei and other Japanese news outlets to witness a military jet exercise at the Ching Chuan Kang Air Base in Taichung, near the Taiwan Strait. The drill was a simulated response to Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwanese airspace.
Alarms rang out and pilots dashed from barracks to the hangar. In less than five minutes, jets were ready for takeoff.
Taiwan has been scrambling jets out of the base more and more often in response to Chinese fighters crossing the median line, the de facto ceasefire between Taiwan and the mainland. Pilots are on standby on two shifts around the clock, ready to respond to an incursion that could occur at any time.
A pilot at the base told Nikkei that he had gotten as close as 2 kilometers to a Chinese military plane.
"It was tense at first, but we are always careful not to provoke the other side," he said.
He was pensive when asked whether China would invade.
"Personally," he said, pausing with a smile, "we're prepared for whatever happens."
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has undoubtedly stoked a greater awareness in Taiwan's defense among the island's people.
President Tsai Ing-wen, whose Democratic Progressive Party takes a tough stance on China, extended mandatory military training for men 18 and above to one year in 2024 from the current four months. The extension has not sparked any major pushback so far, and the Taiwanese youth seem to largely accept the change.
During a recent visit to the Kaohsiung Municipal Sanmin Senior High School, a designated hub for defense education, a large group of students was listening intently to instructions on how to use airsoft guns, which fire small pellets but weigh the same as guns that fire bullets.
"You have to fix your aim before you shoot," the instructor said.
After receiving lessons on recent global events and training in how to handle weapons, the students took part in a shooting drill. They wore helmets and camo vests, and shot at targets with airsoft guns.
The students treated the drill like a game, not high-stakes training for an impending crisis.
"I don't think China will actually attack us, but it's important to be prepared," one said.
This represents a drastic change in attitude from the lead-up to Taiwan's last presidential election in 2020. China was cracking down on large-scale student protests in Hong Kong at the time, fueling concern over the city's freedoms. There were also fears that Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has said he will not rule out the use of force on Taiwan, could make a move to unify the island with mainland China.
But the mood has changed. "China won't invade, we have TSMC," said a guide at a government tour, reflecting a growing sense of security in Taiwan.
Taiwan produces roughly 90% of the world's cutting-edge semiconductors. Many seem confident the U.S. and Japan will protect Taiwan in the event of a crisis, since it is home to many chipmakers that are critical to their economic security, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
On Nov. 15, I met with Hou Yu-ih, who is running for president from the leading opposition party Kuomintang. Hou warned that should the DPP, which China sees as an advocate for Taiwan's independence, win the election, the island could be led down the path of war.
The election "is a choice between war and peace," he said.
Ko Wen-je, a presidential candidate with the Taiwan People's Party, also said that 60% of voters want a different party in charge.
But the idea that a DPP administration would lead Taiwan to war does not seem to be resonating with voters, since few seriously believe China would invade -- a stark contrast to the level of concern in Japan and the U.S. over a potential crisis.
The two opposition parties had at one point agreed to back a joint candidate in the January vote. But the deal fell apart on Nov. 24, the deadline for registering candidates. The DPP's Lai Ching-te is now in the lead -- the worst-case scenario for Beijing.
It seems unlikely that the Chinese leadership will simply do nothing if the DPP, which does not recognize that Taiwan and the mainland are part of "one China," secures another presidential term. The fading concerns in Taiwan over China could be taken as a slight as well by the Xi government.
"China's domestic economy is currently in a tough situation, and a military action on Taiwan would cost it too much," a security analyst close to the DPP said on condition of anonymity.
It is true that China is under pressure. But overly optimistic views about the situation also carry a risk.
https://asia.nikkei.com/