China-Syria Relations and the Uyghur Issue

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 and the subsequent rise of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led interim government have significantly altered Syria’s geopolitical landscape. China, a long-time supporter of Assad, has swiftly pivoted to engage with the new Syrian leadership, aiming to expand its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and assert greater influence in the Middle East. However, China's policies toward the Uyghur Muslim population in East Turkestan, widely condemned as involving mass detentions, forced labor, and cultural suppression, pose a significant challenge to its diplomatic overtures in Muslim-majority Syria.

Historical Context of China-Syria Relations

Prior to 2024, China's relationship with Syria was characterized by non-intervention and selective economic engagement. China consistently blocked UN resolutions targeting Assad's regime, aligning with Russia to counter Western-led initiatives for sanctions or military intervention. Economically, China's involvement was limited by the conflict's intensity, focusing on small-scale investments in energy, infrastructure, and trade, often framed under the BRI. The Assad regime maintained a conspicuous silence on the Uyghur issue, reflecting its dependence on Chinese diplomatic and economic support.

China’s Strategic Engagement with the HTS-Led Government

Following Assad's downfall, China recognized the HTS-led government as a potential partner. High-level diplomatic exchanges ensued, including a meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Chinese officials at the United Nations in April 2025, where Shaibani advocated for a "strategic partnership" to bolster economic cooperation. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized reconstruction and stability in subsequent talks, underscoring China's commitment to Syria's post-conflict recovery. Syria's new leadership, under HTS, has appointed foreign fighters, including Uyghurs, to senior military positions, raising concerns among foreign governments and Syrian citizens regarding the administration's intentions.

China’s Strategic Objectives in Syria

China's engagement in Syria is driven by several strategic objectives:

• Economic Expansion: Syria's reconstruction, estimated to cost between $250 and $400 billion, presents a lucrative opportunity for Chinese firms under the BRI. Projects in infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications are prioritized, with Chinese companies poised to lead.

• Geopolitical Influence: By engaging the HTS-led government, China seeks to position itself as a neutral mediator in the Middle East, challenging U.S. dominance and enhancing its role in multilateral forums like the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum.

• Regional Stability: A stable Syria is critical for securing China's trade routes through Iraq and Turkey, which are integral to the BRI's connectivity across Eurasia. Stability also mitigates risks to Chinese investments in neighboring countries.

The Uyghur Human Rights Crisis: A Diplomatic Dilemma

The presence of Uyghur militants, such as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), in Syria poses a significant challenge to China's diplomatic efforts. The TIP has vowed to expand its struggle into East Turkestan, targeting cities like Urumqi and Kashgar. Syria's new leadership has appointed officials linked to TIP, further complicating diplomatic ties. China must navigate its relationship with Syria's new government while addressing the risks posed by Uyghur militants operating in the region.

China's Policies in East Turkistan: Human Rights Violations and Global Repercussions

China's actions in East Turkistan, including mass detentions, forced labor, and cultural suppression, have drawn widespread condemnation. The United Nations, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International have characterized these actions as potential "crimes against humanity," with the United States and European Union labeling them as "genocide" and imposing sanctions on Chinese officials and entities .

The region's strategic significance, rich in natural resources and pivotal to China's Belt and Road Initiative, further complicates the international response .

Syria's New Leadership and the Uyghur Issue

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024, Syria's new Islamist leadership, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), faces internal and external pressures regarding China's policies in East Turkistan.

• HTS's Pragmatic Approach: HTS has refrained from publicly commenting on East Turkistan, focusing on economic reconstruction and stability. This approach mirrors the Assad regime's previous stance but risks alienating domestic constituencies sympathetic to the Uyghur cause .

• Public Sentiment and Domestic Pressures: Syria's Sunni-majority population, having experienced oppression, views the Uyghur crisis through the lens of Muslim solidarity. Grassroots movements and social media campaigns in HTS-controlled areas have called for action on East Turkistan, potentially pressuring HTS to address the issue .Reuters

• Regional Influences: Turkey, a key supporter of HTS, has been a vocal critic of China's Uyghur policies, hosting a significant Uyghur diaspora and raising the issue at international forums like the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Turkey's influence in northern Syria could push HTS to adopt a more critical stance .

China's Strategic Engagement with Syria

China views its relationship with Syria as a strategic partnership, offering substantial reconstruction aid and aligning its counterterrorism narrative with HTS's anti-ISIS stance. However, the appointment of Uyghur militants from the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) to senior military positions in Syria has raised concerns in Beijing, as it associates TIP with separatist movements in East Turkistan.

China has expressed concern over these appointments, urging Syria to prevent any terrorist forces from using its territory to threaten the security of other countries.

Regional Dynamics and the Role of Turkey

Turkey's position is pivotal in shaping the regional response to the Uyghur crisis. While Turkey has been a vocal advocate for Uyghur rights, hosting a significant Uyghur diaspora and raising the issue at international forums, it also maintains economic ties with China, including participation in the Belt and Road Initiative. This dual approach creates a complex dynamic, as Turkey navigates its support for Uyghur rights with its strategic interests in its relations with China.

Future Scenarios and Policy Recommendations

Several scenarios could shape the trajectory of China-Syria relations and the Uyghur issue:

• Pragmatic Alignment: HTS prioritizes Chinese investment, maintaining silence on East Turkistan to secure reconstruction funds. This scenario strengthens China’s regional influence but risks domestic unrest among Syrians sympathetic to Uyghurs, potentially undermining HTS’s legitimacy.

• Symbolic Criticism: HTS issues mild, carefully worded statements on East Turkistan to appease domestic and regional audiences, while preserving economic ties with China. This approach could mitigate tensions but may fail to satisfy public demands.

• Western Engagement: Increased Western aid and sanctions relief prompt HTS to raise the Uyghur issue, straining China-Syria relations. This scenario is unlikely given current Western caution and limited financial commitments.

• Regional Escalation: Heightened tensions between Turkey and China over Uyghur rights force HTS to take a public stance, potentially disrupting China’s Belt and Road Initiative plans in Syria and beyond.

• Grassroots Uprising: Growing public discontent in Syria, fueled by social media and diaspora networks, compels HTS to adopt a more assertive stance on East Turkistan, even at the cost of economic ties with China. This scenario, though less likely, could reshape regional dynamics if protests gain traction.

Policy Recommendations:

• For Syria (HTS): Adopt a balanced approach by securing Chinese investment while issuing measured statements on East Turkistan to maintain domestic and regional credibility. Engaging Turkey as a mediator could help navigate these tensions without alienating China.

• For Western Nations: Increase reconstruction aid tied to governance reforms and ease sanctions to compete with China’s influence. Amplify Uyghur advocacy through multilateral forums like the UN, leveraging Turkey’s influence to pressure HTS.

• For Turkey: Use its leverage over HTS to advocate for Uyghur rights while balancing economic ties with China. Coordinating with Western allies could enhance its regional influence without escalating tensions with Beijing.

  ConclusionSyria’s economic desperation favors alignment with China, yet public sentiment, HTS’s Islamist roots, and Turkey’s advocacy for Uyghurs could elevate the issue as a point of contention. Western nations, while championing Uyghur rights, struggle to counter China’s leverage due to their reliance on sanctions and limited engagement. The China-Syria relationship thus encapsulates a broader geopolitical struggle, with the Uyghur crisis serving as a critical test of moral and strategic priorities. As Syria navigates its post-Assad future, its response to the Uyghur issue will not only shape its ties with China but also influence its standing in the Muslim world and the global order. The resolution of these dynamics will have far-reaching implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics, the BRI’s viability, and the global human rights agenda.